f901c92b44 Prediction Markets. That were generating probability estimates more accurate than were coming out of many intelligence analysts. Nobody, for that matter, came really close to predicting the disintegration of the Soviet Union later on. 1. So it captures part of the distinctive working style of the superforecasters–is that they try to get as much initial statistical leverage on the problem as they can before they delve into the messy historical details. Its a must read for anyone who wants to talk about a real implementable, properly engineered and scalable solution for the sustainable society that we all want for our kids. And we did our initial pile of studies back in the mid-1980s when people, hawks and doves, were arguing about the best ways of dealing with the Soviet Union. I think there's a–you are a psychologist. Treat it as a thought experiment.
Everyone else thinks it's a mistake. Significantly better. Guest: That's familiar. Conversation With ISIS Before Attack On Syrian Military September 26, 2016 Control of Communicable Diseases Dissenting Comment to the CDC Search for: Home Liberty 21 Books The Ruling Elite Doesnt Want You to Read TOPICS:ConspiraciesMediaRick Gedeon August 15, 2011 By Rick Gedeon The sole purpose of COINTELPRO was to destroy individuals and groups perceived as threats to the status quo in the United States. intelligence community was simply interested in who could generate the most accurate probability estimates for these extremely diverse questions. They create an effect–many organizations. Could you replicate the success with the same team; do you think they would continue to outperform the benchmarks? That would be the first question. Here's the quote:Galen was untroubled by doubt. Guest: And I think our best estimate is they can distinguish somewhere between about 15 and 20 degrees of uncertainty, along a probability scale.
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